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2018 Year-End Market Commentary and 2019 Market Outlook

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

3D reviews the events that shaped 2018 global equity and fixed income performance and provides a big picture outlook for 2019. The report contains the following: 1. Big picture outlook and key issues heading into 2019; 2. Summary 2018 year-in-review; 3. Final thoughts and our base case estimate of the path forward; 4. Supplemental charts and exhibits.

The Growing Risk to Dividend-Paying Strategies

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

Corporate America is going on a balance sheet ‘diet’ after having binged on share repurchases, dividend payouts, and mergers/acquisitions (M&A).

November 2018 Market Commentary

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

Well, it turns out that Fed strangle had a narrower upper/lower volatility bound than what had been conveyed by Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell back in October when Powell stated the Fed was ‘a long way’ from neutral on interest rates. Powell blinked in November and helped walk market volatility back from the cliff just as it appeared markets were threatening to take a dive.

Let's Talk Turkey

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, we lay out the risks and opportunities that the current investment environment offers to investors in the wake of market volatility.

October 2018 Market Commentary

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

It was a clear month of ‘risk-off’ positioning as global equity markets dropped following negative headlines surrounding Federal Reserve tightening, China slowdown, and ongoing trade disputes between the U.S. and China.

Powell Strangles the Markets

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

“Interest rates are still accommodative, but we’re gradually moving to a place where they will be neutral…We may go past neutral, but we’re a long way from neutral at this point [emphasis added], probably.” – Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell (10/3/2018 Q&A Session with PBS’ Judy Woodruff)

Third Quarter 2018 Market Commentary

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

Global equity markets continue to advance, this time led by international stocks, as investors opportunistically bought overseas markets on signs of easing global trade tensions and cheaper equity market valuations.

Goldilocks Enters the Breach

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

Assuming the Federal Reserve follows through on expectations of two more rate hikes this year (September and December meetings) and assuming core inflation holds at 2.1%, the U.S. is about to enter the ‘breach’ of positive real interest rates for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.

August 2018 Market Commentary

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

Well, so much for the correction in ‘growth’ style equities that we highlighted in our July 2018 Market Commentary, following mixed earnings releases from growth stalwarts Facebook and Netflix. On 8/1/2018, Apple reported strong quarterly earnings, and investor sentiment quickly swung back into Nasdaq 100 which ended the month up 8.9% versus 3.3% for the S&P 500 Index. U.S. value underperformed the broader markets, as its relative performance was partly hindered by a flatting U.S. yield curve which weighed on financial sector performance.

When the Music Stopped but the Bankers Were Still Dancing

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

“When the Music Stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.” – Then Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince in a Financial Times interview circa July 2017 (via Time Business).