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Happy 10th Anniversary Bull Market

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

This is the fourth bull market anniversary piece published by 3D since my arrival at the firm in 3Q2015. From the market closing low reached on 3/9/2009, the S&P 500 Index has achieved an annualized return of 17.45% versus 10.98% for ex-U.S. developed markets (MSCI EAFE) and 10.80% for MSCI Emerging Markets. If the employment picture holds up and we see progress on global trade disputes, the global equity markets should resume their advance. World central banks have largely backed away from coordinated tightening, so the market should benefit from liquidity tailwinds and easier financial conditions.

February 2019 Market Commentary

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

With this year’s recovery in ‘risk-on’ assets (cyclical equities, commodities, credit spreads) against a soft bond market (U.S. Treasury Yields), a strong U.S. dollar (heightened demand for liquidity), and a global economy feeling the effects of a China slowdown – the Fed finds itself on a tightrope between being patient versus the risk of allowing near-term inflationary pressures to run ahead of policy.

The Flock to Quality

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

If you’re an asset allocator concerned about the near-term market environment – slowing global economy, global trade conflicts, Hard Brexit – but want to remain fully invested and avoid timing the markets, while reducing the ‘stress’ in your portfolio, what do you do?

January 2019 Market Commentary

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

We believe the markets are pricing in a slowdown but not a recession, based on January’s strong performance following dovish Fed policy-signaling and a thawing in the U.S./China trade dispute. We think global equities got ahead of themselves in January as market valuations expanded in the face of a slowing earnings growth environment (emerging markets, notwithstanding).

Gaming Brexit

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

We’re publishing this brief Brexit update in response to a recent article, “Game Theory Says Don’t Bet Against a No-Deal Brexit,” published by Leonid Bershidsky, European opinion columnist for Bloomberg. Bershidsky is skeptical the EU will agree to a deal that excludes the Irish backstop, because the EU is playing a different game than the U.K.

2018 Year-End Market Commentary and 2019 Market Outlook

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

3D reviews the events that shaped 2018 global equity and fixed income performance and provides a big picture outlook for 2019. The report contains the following: 1. Big picture outlook and key issues heading into 2019; 2. Summary 2018 year-in-review; 3. Final thoughts and our base case estimate of the path forward; 4. Supplemental charts and exhibits.

The Growing Risk to Dividend-Paying Strategies

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

Corporate America is going on a balance sheet ‘diet’ after having binged on share repurchases, dividend payouts, and mergers/acquisitions (M&A).

November 2018 Market Commentary

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

Well, it turns out that Fed strangle had a narrower upper/lower volatility bound than what had been conveyed by Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell back in October when Powell stated the Fed was ‘a long way’ from neutral on interest rates. Powell blinked in November and helped walk market volatility back from the cliff just as it appeared markets were threatening to take a dive.

Let's Talk Turkey

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, we lay out the risks and opportunities that the current investment environment offers to investors in the wake of market volatility.

October 2018 Market Commentary

Author: Benjamin Lavine, CFA, CAIA

It was a clear month of ‘risk-off’ positioning as global equity markets dropped following negative headlines surrounding Federal Reserve tightening, China slowdown, and ongoing trade disputes between the U.S. and China.